Retail sales are a good indicator of the overall health of the economy, providing specific insight into the ability and willingness of residents to spend money, driving local economic activity.
When retail sales decline, it may be the result of declining incomes (overall or at the individual household level), declining consumer confidence, declining tourism, declining population, higher taxes, or higher savings rates.
Although retail sales in the SEAGO region declined considerably from 2008 through 2010 as a result of the global recession, the declines were not as steep as at the state level. Statewide, retail sales in 2009 were down 19.9 percent from 2005 levels, after adjusting for inflation.
In the SEAGO region, the decline was only about half that, at 10.7 percent. Graham County was the only county in the SEAGO region to see retail sales in 2009 that were above the level of 2005; however, the 0.3 percent growth over the total period was mostly the result of strong growth in 2006 and 2007, after which sales declined for two consecutive years and into the first 9 months of 2010.
Cochise County saw sales in 2009 that were 6.2 percent below 2005 levels, after the inflation adjustment.
Santa Cruz County hardest hit
The hardest hit county in the SEAGO region was Santa Cruz County, with 2009 sales that were 22.9 percent below the level in 2005. This was followed by Greenlee County, which saw sales in 2009 down by 19.4 percent compared to 2005; however, the period of 2005 to 2009 was characterized by great instability with drastic swings between positive and negative growth, which may mask the true trend in Greenlee County‘s retail sales.
In the first 9 months of 2010, retail sales statewide and within the SEAGO region were down, but the declines had moderated from those seen in 2009.
Cochise County was the only exception, where retail sales in the first three quarters of 2010 underperformed those in the same period of 2009.
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